in Opinion

How to write brilliant predictions for 2012

2012 is nearing so it is time for almost every blogger with a bit of self-respect to build a prediction list for 2012. However how to you prevent that you will not look like a fool with your predictions and how do you get the most out of it? I would suggest you to use this structure:

Start with what did not work

However explain that even if some of your 2011 predictions didn’t make it, it wasn’t you, it was something else preventing them from happening, so use a quote such as “most organisations are still not mature enough” or “google really lacked the vision to make good progress on this topic”. This way it wasn’t you who made the mistake, plus you can take this predictions with you for the 2012 predictions. Also if something only happened for a bit just claim that you predicted that correctly and preferably make a separate blog post for that.

Make a long list

Make a really long list, so it is easier to get things right (and forget about the things you’ll predict wrong). Something that also will help is to show trends that are already taking place now and predict they will ‘grow even further’ in 2012. Safe trends will be big data, mobile (just like in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 this will be the year of mobile), social media (anything is just fine), sustainability and great design. Preferably use new words which give you the opportunity to explain them in a different way when writing your 2013 predictions. Make sure that you can link back to older blog posts from 2011 so you can drive traffic to your site in general, you know those posts were already brilliant back then so these post deserve the extra attention.

Keep it high level

To be even more safe try to not be concrete in your predictions, you might rather want to talk about generic terms such as the rise of the platforms, X as a service, major shifts in some verticals or horizontals. This is very safe since everything that happens can be tied to either a platform a service or a shift in a certain area. So basically you are always right.

Disclaimer

Make sure to put some disclaimer in your predictions post, you might want to claim that there are exciting times ahead and that therefore tons of things might change, even the things you could not foresee (which is highly unlikely, since you are of course brilliant, otherwise you wouldn’t write these predictions).

My predictions for 2012

I would say things will change in 2012, some big players will disappear, some old players will reinvent themselves and of course there will be some exciting start-ups since there is an exciting time ahead.  Every vertical will be impact by social and by big data also to support sustainability programs, and probably the need for mobile experiences will increase, however only if there is really great design involved.

Just don’t take yourself too seriously in 2012. Do the things you love, not the things you are good in.  New things will happen, old things will disappear and change is the only constant, and change will happen whether you will predict it or not.

Just do great stuff.